Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 95.57

+0.7%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tom Warren who wrote (25429)	7/21/1999 9:09:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) of 93625

Tom: I think you accepted 3K shares form me on Monday. I was wondering what your opinion on recent 3 month delay in volume shipments of RDRAM on short term stock price. I have talked to chip distributors this week and both PC133 and RDRAM are not players in sales yet but PC133 is going to be coming on strong this fall in majority volume of DRAM sales for PII/PIII systems if VIA Apollo chipset solution is faster then BX chipset. Celeron will brings up the rear with PC66 unless VIA gets them as well (Apollo blows away 810 at same price point). RDRAM is targeted for mid range PC's in the $3,000 price point. If I review the Intel mp timetable, PIII 550/600 don't enter into entry level PIII offering until mid 2000. This timeframe is when Intel expects volume production of RDRAM. So we have 4 more quarters of relatively flat earnings. I can live with that. My sticking point is that when this volume rollout of RDRAM occurs, DDR RAM starts online with decent market share already announced OEMs. Can we have another new 3 month delay as DDR becomes the new interim solution for volume desktop systems in 3Q 2000? In addition, VIA/Cryix, AMD and API should have their new mp's supporting DDR. AMD is the most formidable of foes for Intel. Their Dresden FAB will come online in 2000 and AMD has recently declined IBM microelectronics help in producing any additional K6 chips. I like RMBS long term but see as the REGISTER points out there are "RMBS share addicts" out there. I see a few on this board who have stopped evaluating any news that is not pro-RDRAM. They fear it is more FUD to try to pry their shares away. Any consideration of the current PC and stock market conditions are ignored. I currently am on fence: short PUT's leaps and uncovered CALLs AUG 120. I would like to know if you feel this weeks strength is still a short covering move with later justification of RMBS's LT potential or just blind faith in LT potential. jd

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