eBay incremental growth and the Diffusion of Innovation Theory...
Probably you are familiar with this long-established explanation of how innovations become diffused over time throughout a society (a classic instance of a bell curve).
Successful innovations of all kinds have been shown to move incrementally through "innovators" (2.5%), "early adopters" (13.5%) "early majority" (34%), "late majority" (34%), and "laggards" (16%).
On-line households in the U.S. now stand at 37%, indicating the early majority phase insofar as internet usage is concerned. The U.S. is ahead of all other nations in this respect. Comparable figures for other nations include the U.K. at 11%, France at 4%, and Portugal at 1%. Figures are higher in Asia than in Europe, with Korea being second only to the U.S.
These numbers point to the enormous potential yet to come for the internet, internationally (of the "you ain't seen nothin' yet" variety).
The same theory no doubt applies at the sub-level of internet auctions. Likely at this level we are in the early adopter phase in this country, and at best the innovator phase elsewhere in the world.
In the classic bell curve, growth in the early phases is slow, and the real acceleration of adoption of an innovation occurs as the early adopter phase transitions into the early majority phase. This is where word-of-mouth and social emulation spur rapid growth.
Of course, some innovations sputter out altogether and never complete the cycle.
eBay could go either way (so could the internet itself). I suppose we all have our own ideas about the future, but my gut tells me that internet auctions have an incredible future awaiting, on a global scale ... and that eBay will ultimately rule in this venue.
I have to admit though that I am prejudiced because I personally love this whole new thing ... and eBay.
I enjoyed your post.
Regards,
JC
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