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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 244.41

+0.6%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (68769)	7/22/1999 2:57:00 AM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (2) of 164684

>>Faith is what it's all about. I agree - investing in any stock requires faith. However, Bezos shouldn't ask us to have faith in his statements on current market share - data can be obtained to make market share claims factual. My own view is that Amazon asks investors to take too much on faith - and that's why I don't own the stock. To own Amazon's stock, you must have faith in their claims for future profitability - such claims are based on their belief that they will be able to benefit from first mover advantage across many businesses on the web, without suffering from potential low customer switching costs, and without diluting their brand. I believe that we will see intense competition on the web in the coming years. Bezos claims he will beat out the competition by focusing on customer service and building a strong brand. Yet I believe much of the competition for retail products on the web will come down to price - it doesn't take much customer service to box a product and ship it to a customer. I can easily see a scenario where customers might use Amazon's site to research purchases - to get information on the products they wish to buy - then go to other sites to buy the products at lower prices. This is a "pure" marketplace scenario which the web makes possible - and easy. And as such, price competition is likely to be severe. Taking all of these factors - and numerous other factors that I have mentioned in posts over the past month - into account, I don't have enough faith in Amazon to own their stock. They may be the world's biggest company in five years - and if so, I will miss out on what will most certainly be one of the greatest stock rises in history. I just believe there are too many unknowns. By the way - were their any updates in today's call on when the company expects to be in the black? -Eric

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