Now we've hit the Big Time: Top 10 Comparisons (and more evidence that gnet is undervalued)
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Morning Report
Thu Jul 22
Up 3.4% In Week:
User Values Hit $592 For Top 10
By Steve Harmon
Senior Investment Analyst
internet.com
"Where Wall Street Meets The Web"
The average value per unique user went from about $60 just over a year ago to about $600 for the top 10 Web sites. The past
week value has increased 3.4% while the median gained 11.1% to $530.
Unique user stats are courtesy of audience measurement firm Media Metrix but the valuation work here is from me based on
comparables, public and private deals, growth, revenue, brand.
WEBDEX
Unique
7-12-99
7-21-99
7-12-99
7-21-99
Percent
website user valuation
Users
Market cap or PMV*
Market cap or PMV*
User
User
change
(millions)
(millions)
(millions)
Value
Value
AOL.com*
47.2
$22,500
$25,000
$477
$530
11.1%
Yahoo
37.1
$30,707
$31,039
$828
$837
1.1%
Microsoft.com*
32.9
$27,500
$30,000
$836
$912
9.1%
Lycos
30.0
$4,494
$4,404
$150
$147
-2.0%
GO Network (SEEK)
20.8
$2,838
$2,533
$136
$122
-10.7%
Excite@Home
17.1
$12,944
$11,813
$756
$690
-8.7%
Time Warner online*
12.3
$2,500
$2,750
$203
$223
10.0%
Amazon.com
12.2
$18,963
$20,266
$1,558
$1,665
6.9%
Go2Net
10.2
$2,082
$2,017
$205
$198
-3.1%
AltaVista*
9.9
$2,500
$2,650
$252
$268
6.0%
TOTAL
$ 220
$ 124,528
$ 129,822
$ 5,149
$ 5,324
3.4%
AVERAGE
$ 24
$ 13,836
$ 14,425
$ 572
$ 592
3.4%
MEDIAN
$ 21
$ 12,944
$ 11,813
$ 477
$ 530
11.1%
*pmv=estimated private market value for website only; user stats from mediametrix.com; valuations by Steve Harmon
For the first time ever portal in the making Go2Net (NASDAQ:GNET - news) cracks the top 10 with 10.2 million users/month. My
abacus says that's about $200 per set of eyeballs, the second-lowest valuation per user of the top 10.
GNET was added to my watch list back in January at under $10 a share. Here's a brain tease, if CMGI (NASDAQ:CMGI - news)
is willing to value AltaVista at $2.77 billion when it announced its bid for 83% of the search directory owned by Compaq then to me
that implies GNET ought to find a similar value.
Based on what features it provides I think Go2Net may have more girth than AltaVista with its HyperMart, auctions, search, finance
community, and reach advantage.
One of the biggest disappointments has been Disney's fumbling of Infoseek (NASDAQ:SEEK - news) which shows only a $122
value per unique user. That's the kind of number that triggers thoughts of two things 1) bargain or 2) bin.
Longer range I think Go Network may be a go.
Time Warner plods along at my $2.7 billion valuation, softened by lack of brand value and a lack of focused strategy. I see 4 paths
to greatness for Time Warner online, wonder if they do because they're on the wrong track now.
Note the premium placed on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN - news) users, because they are buyers more often than not. Not
browsers. To me Amazon now represents a threat to Softbank more than anyone else.
Softbank got behind Webvan, a warehouse delivery startup. What do you think Amazon is doing building warehouses? Same thing I
believe. Sell everything, warehouse everything.
Finally, Microsoft.com has been difficult to value because of its enigmatic parts. But with what I think could be about $800 million in
annual revenue putting an aggressive multiple of revenue on that, adding some brand bang, and I can see a Microsoft.com value of
$30 billion.
Come on Bill, go ahead and IPO it, the tracking stock is needed to fight the Web wars ahead. |
