To all. . . . . . . . . As the Market Sleeps. . . . . . .
I believe the best "play" here is to wait for this season to end. . .but there is much to do before the market wakens in the fall.
First, we go back to DD and figure out which are the BEST stocks of their kind. . .argue them, debate them and put them all thru the fire.
Then we make our watch boards. . . giving them play designations. . . then we go to TA and watch for clear signals of bottom, perhaps sometime late in August or if China becomes a big problem, in October.
What we will attempt to do is "pick" the winners AHEAD of the fund managers. . . .then adjust our picks based on what they finally pick.
Strange as it sounds. . .it is usually better to go with what the fund managers select, rather than merely what is best. . . .because it is their sustained buying that ultimately pushes up the stock.
I used to select stocks about 1 year too early. But now I keep one eye on fund managers, to be assured that they are getting in with me. That has led to the tremendous success of our long ports. And that brings up another subject. . . .many of the stocks we pick over the summer to be the winners of 2000. . . should be considered LONG TERM HOLDERS. . . . not mere position trades.
We will have plenty of positions, but the right stocks held long will outperform even most of our position trades in the coming new bull run, IMO.
Make no mistake. . . .we have MUCH work to do. . .that is why I am working so hard on getting our website exactly right. . . . the organization of the DD we do is vitally important and proportionate to our success rate for next year.
The high-tech/internet market is getting very crowded and there will be lots of losers this time around. And with the higher number of stocks to consider, it takes enormous research to weed out the losers and pluck out the winners.
I am also noticing many bogus "internet" companies. . . .having IPOs just to raise money to do whatever the wish. . . .we need to weed these out early, so they do not confuse us later.
Frankly, for my individual stock picking abilities to work best, I need massive amounts of input. The more input, the clearer the picture. So the ORGANIZATION of our DD, market data, industry data and other info is critically important. . .as are our discussions, arguments, hypothetical scenarios and thought-provoking questions.
We do it right. . . . .we all win.
I appreciate each and every person here for their unique perspectives. It is through that varied input that we stay well-rounded as a team. . . remember that "iron sharpens iron."
Best wishes for a terrific new millenium.
Rande Is
. . . . . . P. S. [I'll be attending the National Music Merchandisers Convention in Nashville on Friday] |
