Q & Rambus:
Lindy & BP:
Lindy, I didn't miss your post on Q; thought it was an excellent summary. Q's movement (or lack thereof) this week reinforces my understanding that I have little or no ability to predict stock movement.
Insofar as BP's posts on Rambus and Gorilla Game, I think they are an excellent read on Rambus's attempt into Gorilladom. I read Geoffrey Moore's brief interview in the S.J. Mercury News earlier this week, and am reminded that the tornado requires 100% growth year over year, but that a company must first "cross the chasm" before getting widespread adoption. Therefore, it would seem that Rambus is presently crossing the Chasm, since the memory manufacturers have nearly all licensed their architecture, and many are right now producing the chips, but none of the Rambus chips have found their way into new products just yet (presently used in Nintendo's video game). The new products on the horizon are confirmed for Sony Playstation II and Dell workstations. Unconfirmed but widely expected are all high end computers. Speculated based on bits and pieces of news, with plenty of inference, are high-end printers, DVD, HDTV, networking equipment. See rambus.com
So by definition, Rambus is not yet a Gorilla, and is not a buy by the classic Gorilla Game rules because it has not yet crossed the chasm and cannot yet be in a tornado, which should appear on earnings announcements in Y2K.
Love this discussion and thread; special thanx to Unc (my vote for King Richard), Lindy & Mike Buckley.
Stan |
