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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company
QCOM 174.01-0.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: w molloy who wrote (21)7/22/1999 12:21:00 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes  Read Replies (7) of 13582
 
Hambrecht and Quist - Very negative 7/20/99 report

H&Q's analyst seems very negative on the Q. Anyone have comments?

Summary:
1) Mot is selling more cdma handsets than Q. They predict that Mot will become the #1 supplier of cdma phone passing Q and Samsung next Quarter. They also predict Nokia will pass Q in handset sales by the end of the year.

2) They say because Nokia and Mot will pass Q, Q's share of the ASIC market will decline.

3) They estimate handset supply will outpace demand. They estimate 1999 handset capacity at 44.7 million units. They estimate demand at 33.4 million units. Thus they expect ASP erosion.

4) They expect royalty income to decline as Mot and Nokia supplies reduce ASPs.

5) They say that the stock should be trading at a mid group p/e of their FY 2000 estimate of $2.70 which is $82- to 102.

Caxton
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