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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (20758)	7/22/1999 12:39:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) of 99985

bloomberg.com Employment growth has exceeded the growth of the working-age population by almost half a percentage point this past year, which ''implies that real GDP is growing faster than its potential,'' Greenspan said. The Fed's official forecast is for a 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent growth rate -- measured from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next. That's down from 1998's 4.3 percent expansion and close to the 3.8 percent growth in 1997. If unemployment falls any further than the 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent range of recent months, that would be ''one indication that inflation risks were rising,'' Greenspan said. ''There can be little doubt that, if the pool of job seekers shrinks sufficiently, upward pressures on wage costs are inevitable,'' he said. ''Such cost increases have invariably presaged rising inflation in that past, and presumably would in the future, which would threaten the economic expansion.''

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