Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 250.24

+0.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Bilow who wrote (68868)	7/22/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (4) of 164684

This reminds me of discussions on this thread about a year ago. I and others posted about the fact that the initial spurt of Internet growth as early adopters and many existing PC owners climbed onto the Internet. Now we see that growth rates have declined. Amazon is in the practice of not breaking out their sales from the various parts of their business so it is difficult to see how much they are growing through stock leveraged acquisitions and how much the growth is due to core business growth. Bezos mentioned that about 70% of sales came from longer-term customers - but what does that mean? Longer term Amazon customers or long term customers of acquired companies? And if that is the case, then it certainly reflects the fact that the "fastest growing" segment of the business, on-line auctions, is not contributing as much to the total revenue picture. But be careful in shorting this stock. They are preparing for Christmas sales and will likely pull out all stops to achieve large business volume - including more of the $5 and $10 give-away certificates, first-time buyer incentives, and $5 for $4 loss leader type sales specials. Sales will boom come Christmas but hoped for profits will be even further off. The stock split is intended to once again whip the stock up and give the company the ability to use more cheap stock as capital to fund acquisitions - Bill Gates only wishes he had it so easy. Microsoft has to pay real money rather than monopoly money for the companies they acquire. Growth has been the primary them of the Internet and Amazon's stock and unless the cycle is completely broken, I expect it will once again float AMZN to new highs by early next year. After that, bulls better hope for a miracle, IMO. But then who knows? Maybe speculators will grow tired of the story of "profits?, not now, maybe in five years."

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