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Microcap & Penny Stocks : WINR-Secure Banking to Global Internet Gaming & E-Commerce
WINR 0.00010000.0%Nov 5 1:20 PM EST

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To: Dave Gore who wrote (5735)7/22/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: hman  Read Replies (2) of 6545
 
To All:

In trying to analyze WINR valuation based on future expected EPS, I am trying to reconcile the following:

1. Current operating margin of approximately 65% in Q2.
2. Skinner Jr expectation of double digit growth in EPS in Q3 & Q4
3. Skinner Jr expectation of 9-11.5 million in revenues for FY99.
4. Skinner Jr comfort level with .20 - .30 EPS for FY99.
4. 0 Debt (My assumption)
5. Expense Overhead growth due mainly to expansion of personnel.

While simplistic, I estimate that a conservative operating margin of 50% can be used if expansion of operations grow faster than revenues.

Let's assume that revenue estimates are accurate but estimate that 9 million is conservative.

Therefore $9 million times 50% operating margin is $4.5 million in earnings divided by 15 million shares is .30 per share pretax.

To be less conservative, $10.25 million in revenues times 55% operating margin divided by 15 million shares is .375 per share pretax.

Or to be a little reckless, $11.5 million in revenues times .60% operating margin divided by 15 million shares is .46 per share pretax.

Now, I have no idea what tax rates are and what tax jurisdictions apply to WINR, but it seems to be that even the conservative estimates after applying a 30% tax rate will yield us the .20 to .30 EPS for FY99.

I guess another question is that if revenue is estimated at 1.2 million for Q1 plus Q2. The revenue numbers will really have to jump to make the 9 million total revenues for the year. Can the current client list perform for 9 million in revenues. My guess is that we will see the addition of about 8 more clients before year-end.

Can anyone shed some light on the above?

Sincerely

hman
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