AXP and JPM buoyed Dow about 35 points with AXP internet banking news
and JPM electronic trading network news.
Interesting disclaimer near bottom of following:
FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER
PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS
BY BARRY ROSEN
“Serving Futures Traders Since 1987”
UPDATED JULY 21 FOR MARKETS OF JULY 22,
1999
STOCKS and SEPT. S & P e-minis
WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher to DOW 12658.
DAILY CHART TREND: Higher.
TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming/higher then lower.
NEXT HOURLY CHART
NEXT DAILY CHART
NEXT WEEKLY CHART
TURN: 7/26 L
TURN: 7/27 L
TURN: 8/99 H
DAY TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 1379.50 (early only) with a 1372.50 stop.
Exit 1393 or MOC Thursday.
(07/22) DAY TRADER'S SUMMARY: We thought we had a shot at working back
towards 1399-1403 but the market failed once again at key resistance
at 1393-1395. Like on Wednesday, an early buy seems reasonable but
only if we move lower early. First resistance on Thursday will be at
1387 and then 1394. Support starts at 1383 followed by 1379.
OVERALL: We had originally felt that we would get a 46-51 point
pullback from Monday's high. Unfortunately we were looking for the
1433-1439 to sell from and the high of the day was 1411.50. We still
need to make two more new highs after Monday's high--and those highs
should get us up toward the 1439 region and the 1447 region. We will
probably stay away from any major shorts until after August 5-6. If
we manage a decent rally on Thursday back to the 1399-1403 region, we
will likely be sellers into the July 27 cycle low. The most bearish
scenario suggests that 1428-1430 will hold and that the market
will fall toward the 1365 level but still recover to new highs.
(07/19) The DOW looks more like its minimum pattern completion came
in. We could see the 11,411-11,400 region but then would expect about
a 412-point pullback. From there we still expect to work higher.
Look for a probably cycle pullback from July 19-July 27 and then a
rally into August 5-6 and a secondary high around August 24. Until we
hit DOW 12568, we probably will refrain from top-picking. It's
possible that we may stall at lower levels in August and only pullback
to DOW 9200 and then hit the higher target later.
FUND PERSPECTIVE: (6/21) The close above DOW 10900 was very positive
and now allows the higher target on the DOW to come in at 12,680.
That translates at least 1540 on the S & P cash and possibly as high
as 1588 on the S & P cash. That means the summer rally should go into
full swing. We have been confident that the bonds would rally into
July or even early August and that will support a stock market rally
so we would buy the dips and continue to hold long funds. Our
June 14 position trade long for mutual funds is looking much better
now that all the doubt is gone after the post-FOMC rally.
BIGGER PICTURE: The technical breakout on Wednesday, June 30 helps
eliminate all doubts about a summer rally. We have been feeling that
the DOW needed one more new high--and looking at the yearly charts, a
pattern completion in the 12,500-12,600 would be very complete. We
will watch patterns but expect to at least be higher into the week of
August 6 and we are open to further upside in August depending on
where we are in the pattern. There appears to be a secondary high as
late as August 24-28 if we can get through a nasty cycle in early
August. Once the new high comes in, we will get a nasty correction
that will quickly go to DOW 9200 and probably last into November; we
are open to a deeper correction but will not speculate about it until
we can measure it.
OEX NOTES: (07/22) Stand aside. Wait until August to consider any put
options.
STATEMENT OF DISCLAIMER
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME
OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT
ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO
THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY
ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT
THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN
ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO
WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE
OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO
THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC
TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION
OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY
AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
BARRY ROSEN HAS LITTLE OR NO EXPERIENCE IN TRADING ACTUAL ACCOUNTS FOR
HIMSELF OR FOR HIS CUSTOMERS. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS TO COMPARE TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS, CUSTOMERS
SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY WARY OF PLACING UNDUE |
