Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 249.43

-1.8%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Jeff Dryer who wrote (68995)	7/22/1999 7:32:00 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Logic of AMZN's Q499: The key number in everyones forecast is revenue per customer account. In Q299, they did $314.4mm in revenues and had 10.7mm customers for revenue per customer of $29. Given that they have a lot more tabs on their homepage, it is somewhat surprising to see that $29 so much lower than the $35 they did in Q1. This business is obviously more seasonal than I was previously thinking. However, with all the new tabs they have the key question becomes how much revenue/account do they get in Q499 (during prime-time for ecommerce). Jamie Kiggen at DLJ is assuming a $500mm quarter which would be about 15-15.5mm accounts doing an average of $32-33. Last December the number was $41 and that was with products that are not all that Christmas-y (other than CD's). Consumer electronics and toys and whatever else they launch by October are more Christmas oriented. Can they do $41 again?? If so, AMZN could do over $600mm in revenue. The problem is how to make sense of what a $500-600mm quarter means in terms of valuation. That, I do not know. I have no position in AMZN, I guess I will just buy it after Labor Day. cheers

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