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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 684.83

+0.6%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: bobby beara who wrote (20854)	7/22/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Bobby, well, based on the theory that the nutz reflect the state of mind of the mania, the weak showing of the sector is indeed food for thought. interestingly, prominent advisors such as Shaeffer and Dines have only recently recommended one should put money into the group, as they expected it to resume it's leadership and outperformance role. their rally off the recent lows had all the hallmarks of a bear market rally however. short and sharp, from an inverted h&s pattern that has now obviously failed. otoh, there is so much manipulation that it is sometimes hard to distinguish between real and false breakouts, see the recent MSFT distribution bull trap. should the nutz carry on in breakdown mode, margin calls will strike once again. that could pressure higher quality stocks as well, as the speculators tend to sell those first when confronted with a margin call in order to be able to hang on to the trash - it always comes back after all,doesn't it? regards, hb

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