MG, Well, we are at Wacky Friday. I think that wacky Friday's are important. If folks are willing to hold their positions -- bull or bear -- over the weekend, I believe it says a lot about the market perceptions. The hypothesis is that the week is up and Friday p.m. is up, the bullish trend is intact and vice versa. We will see.
Been doing some interesting reviews of a concept I'll refer to as projected extent. Your discussion of HWP brings it into focus. The concept is that when a stock is in a consolidation pattern, and breaks it to the upside, we can project the extent of the possible run to the next high by 1) taking the difference between the high base and low base, 2) multiplying the result by the famous Fib number of 1.38, and 3) adding it to the previous high base.
Try it, I think you'll enjoy the concept. I actually forget how I did it, but I projected the HWP high at $117. It was close.
The real problem I see is that the OEX is at critical support, and, yet, many of the Big Boyz just crossed 80 on my Sto settings. Rather disconcerting.
At this point we have a Fib 50% retracement, which held; but then, the 38% held Thursday. A short-term daily trend line held firm; thus, I believe that we get a rally, and the extent of the recovery will provide an important missing puzzle piece. If the rally fizzles around OEX 715, we know it is weak and this entire break-out will be left in doubt.
Let's put it this way, the strength, or lack thereof, of this recovery will let me know if I should implement Captain Jim's strategy.
I admire your efforts to get into the fixed income world. I don't have enough hours available to deal with these equity thingies.
A View from the Swamp
TB |
