Iris,
I have a weak buy signal on CIEN as on today on the daily charts, but I am getting contradictory signals on the OBV and I-watch indicators. OBV is declining on the daily, 60, 15 and 5 minute charts,but I-watch indicates some institutions were aggressive buyers today. I don't know of any new take over rumours. From a fundamental point of view, I don't think the earnings numbers this year matter as long as they meet estimates. The acquisitions will be dilutive this year and will mess up the numbers quite a bit. Most analysts have pretty low expectations, so it should be easy for them to beat. I think the acquisitions are the right move. They need to add value added features as D-WDM has quickly become a commodity. The long distance D-WDM market appears to be humming along. CIEN's first RBOC win is a good sign. The real question is the metro market and how fast it will ramp. We see some installations finally starting to be deployed and CIEN still has a technology edge at this point. Right now the stock is running on momentum and expectation not fundamentals. I still have not heard the LU call yet, but I have not seen any indication of a slow down in telecom equipment spending. I would hold off and try to get an entry point closer to 30, given the current market tone. I am not looking for any aggressive, quickly pops in price right now.
WIND the stock looks pretty weak right now, but I don't follow its trading that closely. I did go to a WIND seminar recently. They have 3000 product design wins and their debugging products are impressive from a technology point of view. They appear to support the greatest range of platforms. There is a trend towards using real time operating system in embedded systems due to code re-usability. That said I find their products expensive at $15,000 per seat per product with a $3,000 per year maintenance contract. Royalties for small production runs are about $50 per product. Most of the projects I have worked on we develop the code from scratch and a lot of the firmware is still written that way though C and C++ are now more common.
>>PS secondary semi equipment makers tend to follow their big
>>brothers,
I didn't like the trading on the S&P500 going into the close so I decide to lock in my profits on CYMI in order to live to trade another day.
After the close I noticed that someone was an aggressive buyer of AMAT today according to I-watch. The sector may not be as weak as it appears on the surface.
My broker noticed that a lot of stocks were down as a result of small block trading. It looks like the institutions are not panicing yet, so this appears to be simply a shake out the little guy right now.
Regards
Harry |
