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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: kapkan4u who wrote (66562)	7/23/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 1573849

Kap, <It appears that Intel thinks (or hopes) that Athlon-500 will be the volume part, and planning a price squeeze using PIII-500. > I don't have this concern - assuming AMD can solve the motherboard fiasco in time, I expect 500MHz shipments for a very short time. I have reasonable confidence that AMD can get most of the volume in the 600+ MHz speed grades for rest of the year. The concern I have is the target market. AMD has so far not shipped any meaningful quantities of product outside of the consumer market. Consumer market in Q4 is probably going to be about 6 Mu. Of this about 5Mu will be sub $1K systems - not a target for Athlon for this year (K6-2 and K6-3 but not Athlon). The remaining 1Mu is going to be between PIII-600/600+ and Athlon. Athlon will probably get a lion share of this (based on the success they had with K6 in the consumer domain and based on the strength of the reviews - especially for games which should be a big deal during Chrismas). This puts K7 consumer sales in Q4 at under 1Mu. So, the key in my mind is their performance on the business side - and that is going to tough to predict until we start seeing OEMs making sytems announcements. If AMD can get half a dozen or more business SKUs from the majors, AMD should be in good shape. If AMD does not get enough sockets, I am sure they will start dropping the ASPs - killing ASPs and thus margins for both AMD and Intel. Intel doesn't have much of response other than Y2K FUD and pricing. If Cyrix delivers and the VIA deal goes through, VIA can cause some trouble for Intel at the low end. And the PC-133 situation for mid-range and high-end should cause further aggravation for Intel. Now, the question is, is Intel smart enough to cede some sockets to AMD so that ASPs don't get butchered or will they go for market share and turn Christmas in to a Halloween for both INTC and AMD longs. Me thinks, it is going to be a scenario somewhere between Chrismas and Holloween but I ain't betting on it. Only time will tell. Chuck

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