Ron,
OH MY GOSH
<Is there anything in his 20 most likely scenarios that provide justification for complete panic??>
Unfortunately that possibility does exist.
If it happens in only a few, rural areas or small or mid-sized towns, no. No complete, nationwide panic. Panic would be limited to those specific areas affected. Particularly, if no preparation was made beforehand and they were dependent on others. If it happened in NYC, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Chicago, Houston , etc. It might be a different story.
Not complete panic for the entire U.S. Only panic for those that it affects. Where will it hit? For how long? No one knows. But, from my perspective ... if you're prepared ... there's no need to panic.
Nonetheless, panic usually doesn't occur until problems are imminent, no matter where you live. Even then, panic often doesn't occur until after the fact. I've lived through one direct Hurricane hit on Houston and several other near misses.
In the initial stages ... people are brought together ... and share. When there's no more to share - that's when panic occurs.
Fortunately, there were no major problems with the infrastructure. Within 4 days after the hurricane all of our power was up and running. The water saved in my bathtub - and those extra Evian bottles did the trick. Plus, this happened in the summer. People who had food in the freezer started cooking on the grill. We had one big block party, with every one sharing what they could. It was actually a pretty festive atmosphire. You met a lot of neighbors you never knew before. Once the food and water ran out - it might have been a different story. There were isolated problems in different areas of the city - but not ours.
I couldn't watch TV or listen to a radio to know what was going on. So, periodically I'd go out to the car - start it up and listen to the news. I had an old princess phone back then ... so family in Ohio would watch TV and call and update me with what was going on. [That's how I found out about the tornado that touched down 3 miles from my place. One tornado almost touched down on the lot next door, but only took off the top of some trees.]
They couldn't call me now, cause I have all of those fancy phones, with battery packs that you have to plug into an electrical outlets. If it weren't for Y2K --- I wouldn't have realized that the d*mn phones wouldn't work without electricity. They worked before. Not now. I'm going to Radio Shack next week!!!
Everyone should have at least ONE of those cheap rotary or princess phones in their house. Even if they only keep it in a closet for an emergency. Who would have thought that???
It felt real lonely in my house, lighting some candles in the evening, and not having enough light to do anything except to sit there and not be afraid of the dark.
I don't advocate nor encourage panic. It's self-defeating. I advocate reasonable preparation. In my case, what I advocate is 3-months preparation, at a minimum. To get thru the winter. Just in case. The more the better. If you can afford it without hardship. My sister (+3 kids) can't do more than a week or two. That's why I'm doing more preparation than others.
If Y2K's not a big deal, you use basically everything you have and/or give the rest to charity. Just like Daffodil posted.
I'm prepared for more than 3-months disruption. But many, can't do what I've done. Many are unwilling or not able to do what I've done - even if they wanted to.
Most don't see the need for even a week of individual preparation. This is what's sad, and what frightens me the most.
BACK TO THE SUBJECT AT HAND ....
I stopped some of the links that ken posts. Just like I stopped reading most of Cheeky Kids posts months ago. As well as much of what bearcub has to say. I don't even read all of your posts. And, I imagine ... many don't read all of mine. That's life.
Doesn't mean that we don't each, individually, have something important to say. We each pick and choose what's important to us. And, who to listen to. We identify with some. We discount others. That's just a fact of life. There's only so much time in a given day.
I'm somewhere in the middle between you and ken and bearcub.
I would have missed this stuff if you hadn't done the "cut & paste". And, personally, it's pretty frightening to me. It won't happen everywhere at the same time. [But, who knows ... maybe it will.] I'd hate to be where it does happen. If it were to occur for an extended period of time. In my case, I don't have to worry much now. But for my family - it's a different story:-(
Thanks for the cut & paste (even if you didn't intend for it to solicit a respose such as mine.)
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Links to lists of "20 most likely problems in the Year/2000" by others on the "Panel of Experts" is at bottom of page.
NOTE: These are the most likely United States problems. Not all locations will experience all of these problems, and not all of the problems will occur at the same time. The peak period for problems will be January through March 2000, with a tapering off of problems and improving conditions throughout the remainder of 2000. By the end of2000, most facets of society in the U.S. will be back to nearly normal conditions. By early 2001, the U.S. will be engaged in trying to catch up to a huge pent up demand for products and services.
Russ Kelly's list of 20 Most Likely Events in 2000
- Reduced air travel early in the year
- Few elective surgeries early in the year
- Telecommunication problems and satellite failures because of Cycle 23 Solar Max
- Frequent electric power "brownouts" and at least one prolonged power outage of 2 to 5 days
- Scattered water supply contamination and interrupted service
- Scattered waste treatment failures and harmful spillage
- 911 system failures and reduced capacity/services
- Traffic control system failures in larger cities
- Gas price increases & rationing
- A major transportation calamity (air, shipping, or rail)
- Major layoffs and business failures in travel and tourism industry
- Las Vegas, Miami, coastal Carolinas, Colorado esp. hard hit
- An emergency banking holidays due to unfounded public fears
- But U.S. banks and money supply is safe
[I can't figure this one out. We're a GLOBAL economy. Everything's on a computer these days. How many Money Center banks only have money & investments in U.S.? Doesn't make sense to me.]
- Temporary closing of assembly lines and manufacturing plants due to raw material delays
- Nationalization of key segments of transportation industry
- Reduced work week and smaller paychecks
- Major aggravations during first few weeks of 2000.
- Access denied to offices
- Elevators that don't work (inter-connectivity with security & fire systems that fail)
- Non-functioning ATM's
- Lines for gas and food
- Computer networks that fail
- Internet access denied
- Telephone, fax, and Email interruptions
- Lost records
- Y2K rage and shocking rise in aberrant behavior [started already]
- Plummeting sales—shocking in scope during first quarter
- Reduced exports
- Eroded consumer confidence
- Less consumer income
- Use up "just in case" inventories
- Strong economic rebound in U.S. in second half of year
- Reduced imports
- Pent up demand
- Lots of lawsuits
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Cheryl
161 Days until 2000
P.S. Sorry you got this whole essay. This is not directed to you personally ... I guess I got off on a tangent. |
