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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (66566)7/23/1999 11:50:00 PM
From: kapkan4u  Read Replies (1) of 1573847
 
<I have reasonable confidence that AMD can get most of the volume in the 600+ MHz speed grades for rest of the year.>

<So, the key in my mind is their performance on the business side - and that is going to tough to predict until we start seeing OEMs making sytems announcements.>

Chuck,

I don't understand the business segment very well. For instance why would a business buy a high-end 600MHz system for anything other than a workstation or a server? And I have no idea how many units are sold into low-end workstation or server segments. One thing I am certain about is that people would buy Athlon systems for gaming and number crunching.

So far AMD had little success in selling to IT departments or to small businesses. One could argue that in the past AMD had neither products nor manufacturing to penetrate business accounts. Remember k6-2 is about one year old, and a decent 0.25u process is about 4 month old. So businesses, in the past had no incentives to consider AMD. Now, because of Athlon and a stable 0.25u the situation is different.

It is amazing to me how Intel was able to depress AMD revenues and stock price at the same time when AMD was making a tremendous progress in both products and manufacturing. The Wall Street is taking a view that no matter what AMD does; Intel will always manage to cut the air supply.

<If AMD can get half a dozen or more business SKUs from the majors, AMD should be in good shape. If AMD does not get enough sockets, I am sure they will start dropping the ASPs - killing ASPs and thus margins for both AMD and Intel.>

Don't underestimate the perception shift. We will see huge press coverage when Athlon becomes available for sale. The story is too sexy to ignore. Jerry's life long pursuit of Intel. This country loves the underdog. So the perception about AMD as a leading edge technology company may suddenly take hold. Then, lookout Intel.

Kap.
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