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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 237.02-2.5%11:08 AM EST
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To: GST who wrote (69235)7/24/1999 12:11:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (2) of 164685
 
GST,

>> Money is flooding out of the US. There is NO volume in the overall market. INstitutions are selling. I suspect the funds are seeing accelerating redemptions. The nets are flooding the market with supply
<<

You pointed out the general factors. These very likely are what caused amzn to drop 100+ pts from the high. But for the short term (a few days), the factor I found most predictive is the size of the lots buying and selling. I didn't see large block selling yesterday or today. I interpret the 20 pt drop yesterday to be the retail traders guessing what the reaction of other traders will be, and deciding it will be negative. So they sold all their shares, and the net funds did not sell, or were buying. But really I can't see how fund managers were surprised by amzn's results. They were as expected.

For the past six months I have been guiding my trading acct by observing the time/sales tick chart. It has had consistantly excellent results. While I think the foreign money flow is an important factor over a period of weeks, the short term reacts more to who is buying and selling and how much.

Anyway, today my method was accurate in predicting the move in amzn. I also acted on it by buying. It could be entirely coincidental. But then maybe not.
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