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Technology Stocks : Documentum (DCTM) Software
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To: The Stock Doctor who wrote (518)7/24/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins  Read Replies (1) of 600
 
Word on the street is that they are about to wrap up 2 major energy company deals. One in England and the second in the middle east. These are both likely to be huge revenue license producing contracts that will go on for years.

For the life of me I can't see how two deals can have a material impact on the long term, on balance. Big deals are nice, but frankly I see this whole area becoming more and more a commodity. Perhaps my view is supported by the license revenue growth of DCTM and FILE over the last while - more commodity type companies like OTEX and DOCS had strong growth, while the aforementioned did not. Forward pricing impact / Microsoft and Lotus battles in the marketplace / natural commoditization over time / means the technology will be cheaper in the future.

Just a caution, big company does not neccessarily translate to huge or stable future revenue.

And I'm firmly in the camp that says this technology is getting cheaper every year. Which means I'd be happier to see lots more deals even if average selling price is trending down, rather than a few blockbuster deals (which probably are subject to all sorts of holdbacks before all the revenue can be recognized anyways).

And I'm still a little PO'd that IR has yet to return email of a few simple questions from months ago.
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