Thread,
Here is something I found out during the last few days that I would like to share with the thread. This is based on my understanding on the going ons in the semiconductor industry - most of which is outside of microprocessor area.
Pretty much every piece of data I have seen in the recent past indicates that Q3 demand for semis (including PCs) is solid and Q4 is looking like blow out - i.e., Intel's guidance during the conf call seems to be pretty accurate.
The industry, including microprocessor side, is looking like it is going to be capacity limited, mostly because of the dramatic growth in sub-$600PCs in the US and ROW and partly because of the Intel's delayed transition to CuMine (increasing die sizes at AMD do not help either).
As far as INTC/AMD are concerned, I think it is still a tough call because I do not have a reasonable handle on Athlon execution and the probable price war - yet. However, there is a chance for explosion of earnings both for INTC and AMD.
So, here is what I did. I covered my INTC short (yes, at a loss) and went out and bought a whole bunch of semi stocks. As much as the Whitney issue is yet another black-eye for Intel, I think there is a reasonable chance that Dan Niles will change his call and if that happens, gotto get out of the way of that freight train. And, actually, Whitney mishap is probably what caused Intel to be less gung-ho about Q3 guidance. This should help AMD but will not do it much good unless Athlon comes up strong - likely but no where near a sure thing. The industry folks are definitely talking about a strong Q3.
I am looking forward to jumping into AMD and/or INTC based on how I see the Athlon launch developing. If I see a strong launch then I will go long AMD, if it is weak one then I will probably go long INTC, and if I see a serious price war developing, then I will sit by the sidelines and watch.
This is one man's opinion. SO, take it for what it is worth.
Chuck |
