Doug R,
So there is not a level that could tell your model not to work, only thing is to wait 10 weeks? Even if QCOM shoot to $200? This really reduces its usefulness.
I also experienced a lot of stocks that had similar pattern as you mentioned and noticed the high probability, and many traders also, I believe. The difference is you defined two levels, IL and ACT. I understand your model should work well, since myself was doing well in the same pattern. But for the most tricky thing that I was not comfortable in shorting, I also didn't find an answer in your model.
Since I know very little about the detail of your model, there is no way for me to test it. So I can only give a couple of stocks that were in the same pattern. Any one that interested can use this model to test them: see if any of those stocks defied this model ANY TIME DURING PAST TWO YEARS:
RNWK,AMTD,YHOO,AMZN,UBID,EGRP,BCST,EBAY,JBOH,MHMY,SIEB,NDB,
SWS,BAMM,KTEL,ZITL,NTBK,EDFY,BEAM,ITVU,EGGS,AWRE.
Please note If any time when IL was crossed and I began shorting, and then I fell 20% under water, I don't think this model is useful, therefore should consider it to be invalid in that case. I can do better in real world without it.
BTW, your model makes me more cautious on QCOM, but I didn't change my basic view and still think it will go up in the near future.
We have time to see the result, and either way I will learn from all this conversation with you. Thanks. |
