Given that INTC is going to go that way, where in the TALC does that put Rambus....over the chasm, across, or in the tornado?
Chaz:
I posted this a few days ago....
I read Geoffrey Moore's brief interview in the S.J. Mercury News earlier this week, and am reminded that the tornado requires 100% growth year over year, but that a company must first "cross the chasm" before getting widespread adoption. Therefore, it would seem that Rambus is presently crossing the Chasm, since the memory manufacturers have nearly all licensed their architecture, and many are right now producing the chips, but none of the Rambus chips have found their way into new products just yet (presently used in Nintendo's video game). The new products on the horizon are confirmed for Sony Playstation II and Dell workstations. Unconfirmed but widely expected are all high end computers. Speculated based on bits and pieces of news, with plenty of inference, are high-end printers, DVD, HDTV, networking equipment. See rambus.com
So by definition, Rambus is not yet a Gorilla, and is not a buy by the classic Gorilla Game rules because it has not yet completely crossed the chasm and cannot yet be in a tornado, which should appear on earnings announcements in Y2K. I think the chasm is almost crossed now and will have been completely crossed by this Autumn/early Winter when Intel releases Carmel/Camino chipsets AND many OEMs have released product with RAMBUS in it.
Stan
PS- What is TALC
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