A word of thanks to all. This new thread is absolutely unbelievable. There are more good stuff on here in a few short days than probably the last month combined.
The only "problem" now is - reading them takes time and requires some thinking. :-)
slacker711, Idler, Bob Craig, etc,
regarding the H&Q report -
Message 10630240
I have a hard copy and it shows some of the numbers not show on Bob Craig's reformatted report.
It is quite apparent that it is a pure hit piece. I have to wonder, with the timing and the data they presented, was H&Q upset that Lehman and GS got the 6.9 million shares offering and they were squeezed out? There are only 2 conclusions one can draw from their earnings estimates going forward. First, the H&Q conclusions were all drawn before listening to the earnings conference call last Monday. The other conclusion is H&Q thinks QC management, namely Thornley, was lying when he said to use $.86 proforma this qtr as base going forward. Now how do you get an estimate of $2.70 for FY2000, when the company tells you that they think $.86 is the base for a seasonally weak qtr? Even if you do a simple $.86 X 4, it is still $3.44.
Anyway, the entire report was focused on one subject - over capacity. In summary, H&Q believes the CALENDAR 1999 aggregate global demand for handsets is 33,362,000 while the aggregate supply for handsets is 44,700,000. If you believe these numbers, than handset supply exceeds demand by 34% for 1999. Further more, reading the report gives you the impression that QC is purely a handset manufacturer. ASICs and other stuff are pure sidelines.
Regarding ASP, while H&Q projected erosion going forward, they made no actual projection of demand. This could be a huge mistake since China is nowhere to be found on the 1999 demand estimates and Japan's demand for 1999 is only 4.740 million.
Despite the fact that the H&Q conclusions are pure trash, motivated by reasons knownst only to H&Q management, the report itself is a keeper and very useful as a check list.
It is very unfortunate that H&Q decided, for whatever reason, have chosen to trash QC. One may never understand the hidden motivations of these Wall Streeters.
Ramsey
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