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Strategies & Market Trends : Arbitrage Plays

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (17)7/25/1999 12:16:00 AM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 376
 
Mike, thanks for pointing out this week's Barron's article on arbitrageurs and their lack of activity in some upcoming buyouts. I'm interested in the US West deal after I saw its mention. USW is selling for about 57 and Quest is offering $69 worth of Quest stock (which might include a cash component depending on circumstances). There are regulatory hurdles, and upon looking further, I see where one investment manager is expecting the deal to take a year to complete. That's not good. (Return would be okay imo - for me anyway, but that really requires patience, since I'd guess the benefit is mostly at the end of the deal.) What I do like is it looks to me like USW is actually itself getting fairly aggressive in rolling out new technology, and that its stock price ($57) is really not too far up compared to where its been or where it might be without Quest. So even if the deal doesn't work out, USW stock might hold up very well (depending on why the deal collapsed of course - if it's because the market crashes, then USW will suffer too).

Anybody on the thread with an opinion on the arbitrage merits of the USW/QWST deal?
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