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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (7128)7/25/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Herbert W. Landon  Read Replies (4) of 15132
 
In the eight years I have listened to Brinker he has always taken one of two positions:

98% of the time he has taken the position that he is bullish, but cautious due to bearish indicators.

The remaining 2% of the time he is outright bullish; at these times he calls it a "gift horse" opportunity. He has reserved his outright bullishness only after the general market has corrected between 7% to 10%. Since each time after the market has made gone lower, it has made new highs, Brinker has been correct 100% of the time.

In fact, if Brinker used this strategy for the last 200 years he would have been correct 100% of the time.

To understand how Brinker maximizes his credibility consider his 1998 Superbowl predictions. On one weekend he predicted that that the Packers would win the game. The next weekend he predicted that the Broncos would beat the spread. Since the Packers were an 11 point favorite, Brinker had to be correct on at least one of his predictions if not both.

As it turned out the Packers lost. After the game Brinker bragged that he correctly predicted that the Broncos would beat the spread and "the spread is all that matters". And it is true that the spread is all that matters to the gambler.

Of course if the Packers would have won by 20 points, Brinker could have bragged that he was correct in predicting the winner and winning is all that matters. And this would be true for the fans and players.

This is the model for Brinker's stock market predictions, too. When the market goes up, he brags that he has been bullish for 12 years. When it goes down he brags that he has warned us about those bearish pitfalls. After it goes down about 9% he puts out an outright buy and then waits for the market to go higher before he brags again.

Bob Brinker is correct 100% of the time.



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