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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound
REFR 1.560-2.5%Nov 7 3:59 PM EST
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To: Druss who wrote (2548)7/25/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: DanZ   of 10293
 
Druss,

I agree with you completely and understand how my statement could have been construed the way you read it. People make big bets on companies all the time and are wrong so size alone doesn't guarantee a winner. My point was, I don't think anybody who holds a large amount of GUMM believes that the company's management has committed fraud or that Zicam is a scam or quack medicine. If GumTech fails, it won't be for the reasons perpetrated by Bill. There's no doubt that an investment in GUMM is risky, and not even suitable for certain risk averse individuals. However, that doesn't mean that the company is committing fraud or that their products don't work as advertised.

I maintain that the risk to reward in GUMM is better than 10:1 in favor of longs. I'm basing this on downside risk of $9 if things fail and $40+ if they succeed. If nicotine gum and Zicam are both successful, my projection is that the company will earn over $3 per share in the year 2000 and that the stock will trade to $100 or more.

Best regards,

Dan

PS to Bill: I believe that your short position will be a loser, albeit you are in the money by 3/8 point as of last Friday's close. My average purchase price is 10 1/4 so I'm in the money by over $2.
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