Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 227.35

+0.3%

Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Eric Wells who wrote (69491)	7/25/1999 8:13:00 PM
From: Marshall001	Read Replies (2) of 164684

Once again, I feel compelled to post. I closed my short position on friday around 105. A quick 10 spot in a little over 24 hours. It is my feeling that the "dead cat bounce" experienced in the afternoon was shorts covering for the weekend. We will probably see a little interest in AMZN with Drugstore.com coming public this week. If AMZN makes a run with DSCM I will again go short. We all know how new IPO's perform after the first day pop. Especially online retail IPO's. I expect a short term correction in all sectors for the next 3 months. I will again be long in late october/early november. This is a short term traders outlook. Longer term should be relatively flat. Most long term holders and long term money will wait for AMZN to begin showing some progress in generating some kind of earnings. Growing revenues is fine but if it it is at the cost of greater losses then it doesn't make any sense. I still feel the overall population is hesitant to buy big ticket items strait over the internet. Sure you can find the car you want and so-on but I want to see and feel it before I commit to the purchase. I think the same will be true for high-end electronics and jewelery as well. Looking for it is one thing, committing to buy is another. The meat and potatoes of AMZN is books and music. They currently work on negative margins for this. And The auction revenues will never be huge. EBAY has proven that. Where do the profits come from? I see the potential of AMZN but I feel the markets have already priced in 5 to 7 years of flawless execution of their current business plan. That being said, AMZN is a great traders stock. The wild fluctuations can make $$ in both directions. The first thing I learned was not to get emotional about the company. I see a lot of emotion here on both sides. Why? We all know its rediculously overvalued. And we all know it could run to 200 again. If you are holding long term and defending your position by posting here you are wasting time. If you are truly long, why even bother. Go play golf or spend time with your family. Watching everyday is going to give you a heart attack. Hopefully everyone here is smart enough to see through the "gloom and doom" of shorts and the "rose colored glasses" used by the longs. Just think about it a little. M

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