Well, in May when Microsoft was $76, those bears came all over this thread and spread horrible stories about Microsoft, and someone even predict Microsoft will drop to $50. In 1998 when Microsft drop from $152 to $140 Mr. JohnD even predicted Microsoft will drop back to $90, and see what is now ? and Microsoft never droped to $90 (presplit then), so I took Mr. Johnd's prediction as a reverse indicator, when he is deeply bearish , I think the stock is ready to move ----> UP. Everytime when Microsoft drop from its high, there is always these bears to spread horrible stories, i.e Microsoft will drop to the hell, the sky is falling. Whenever these bears start to spread stories, I just add my position. Well, are you really sure that Microsoft's growth will slow down in the year to come ? IDC predicted there will be over 100MM units of PCs will be shipped this year, and each of them will be installed one copy of WIN 98 , and most of them will have office 2k installed, can you calculate what kind of revenues and profit Microsoft will gain from here ? 2ndly, Intel, predicted the 2nd half of 1999 will be even better , well as you know more CPUs Intel sold, that means more PCs will be shipped, then , why MSFT will slow down ? All Box makers, including IBM , HP, DELL, all predicted better second half, which pretty match with Intel's prediction. Could you tell me if Intel , all the box makers all predicted better 2nd half, why Microsoft will slow down in the 2nd half ? Unless, Intel, IBM, HWP, DELL, ...etc were all telling lies.
In the second half, CE will fly. Due to the hardware shortage in the first haf, i.e flat pannels, not too many hand held devices were shipped. Starting from the second half, more than 10 super flat pannel FAB will start up, and you will see hand held PDA everywhere, and most of them will have CE installed, and they can communicate with eachother, communicate with your PC at home or in the office remotely, and you can extract data from the Net, from your PC or from any PCs anytime, anywhere. Can you imagine how large the market will be, say everyone on the earth had one PDA just like a watch , which will work as your personal data center, and communication tools when you are traveling.
The win2k is just at the corner, and Sunw is frighten to death , this OS will replace Unix due to its power and price. I heard a lot of big corperation is ready to switch to NT, and a lots of CAD companies is porting their CAD products onto NT.
Another product which will make Orcl nervous is the server SQL rev 7.0.
How about MSN ? AOL is sweating now , and its stock price is falling.
How about e-commerce, did you hear that Microsoft will be in the stock broakage business, online auto sales business ? and many many more .
Well, with all the excitement I just mentioned and many many more , I really do not see Microsoft will slowdown !!!!
Have you heard about set top box ? Do you know how many TV is now in the families of the world ? Can you imagine How many copies of CE will be sold if 60% of the family will install set top box with their existing TVs ? Your imagination.
Have you ever heard of smart appliance ? home networking ? again , do you know how many copies of CE will be sold for the home networking and smart appliance business ? well, your hand held PDA will communicate with those smart appliance in the future when you are traveling.
Do you know in a not long distant future, all the Autos will be installed with a small computer so that you can drive more smartly and efficiently , and do you know which OS will be installed ?
As to the y2k stories, well, it really help Microsoft. Because all these PCs with 80486 CPUs , and operated with Win3.1 will be upgraded
before y1999, Dec 31. When the owners of these PC upgrade to Win98, most likely , each of them will have Office 2k installed, and most likely , they will have to upgrade their PCs so that it can run win98.
Did you hear Intel and all box makers all predict better second half of 1999? That is why !!!!
Psychologically, most of the rich people overseas will park some of their billions of wealth in the US market, well, you know the stock market is driven by greediness, fear, but all in all , it is money which drive the price. Can you imagine in the second half of 1999, bullions of dollars from Overseas and all dump on Microsoft !!!!!
Finally, do not be folled, nothing will happen in Y2k , most of the companies is now operating as Y2k Certified, and no companies will wait till the last second. And no freeze will happen at all, if companies need to buy more computers due to the expansion of business, they will just buy , now , no one will wait after y2k !!!!
Did you see, all Box makers, Intel, all predict better business in the secon half of 1999, Sunw, Orcl, Apple , Hwp, even SGI all reported record revenues, and growth recently !!!!!! No companies are freezing the buying !!!!!! |
