Max until a week ago that was my feeling as well (that the fall might be tough), but with so much consensus, I fear the market will teach us another of its lessons in humility. As a matter of fact, late last week, I suddenly turned extremely bullish for the next week maybe two (one only is the higher probability), one of the reasons was the sudden daily blow out of the S&P future put calls ratio, it reached just above 2. Such consensus frightened my "turnips" so much that I even did what I rarely do, bought back the same shares I sold on the opening (luckily at a nice discount), and I am sitting tight to see where we go, I think this week will be up. After that, down, but not through the whole fall, I think that any "Fall fall" will end by the end of September, maybe even before Fall gets a chance to start. After that, I see relatively clear sailings...
Zeev |
