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As a daytrader of the S&P Futures, I try hard to be neither a bull nor a bear. I am not smart enough to swing trade. I guess because I do not believe in large drawdowns. I have deep pockets, but I am not willing to let the boyz in the pits put their hands in them. I believe strongly in an oxymoron I call "safe" trading ... risk reduction trading. I always leave lots of money on the table, of course, but my accountant loves this "safe" trading approach (of course, the last risk HE took was being born). Anyway, I always start my trading day with two views of the market ... projections of what MIGHT happen (my father, a bond trader, taught me to never walk into a bar room brawl unless I knew the exact location of the back door as well as the main entrance). Because I am usually "flat" at every close, I really have no "position" to talk (or hope for). I have a "most likely" projection and a "next most likely" projection. They are not always opposing views (bull vs. bear). Sometimes they are. They are not always right. They often are. Right now, my "most likely" projection initiates an impulsive move higher that launches the index to extraordinary highs ... beyond 1625 Cash SPX before the end of the year (and the start of a long-term sideways channel that bounces off those highs and gets back down, slightly below where we are today ... and that channel might last for years). This "most likely" series is extremely bullish over the next month or so. It requires a STRONG move higher this week. Over the weekend, I tried to drag some very bearish projections from their cave, but the structure just is not there (at the moment) for a major clawing of prices. I know there's loads of fear and loathing regarding the height of the indexes ... I feel it myself every day ... but, in my work, the STRUCTURE is not there for a collapse. About the only way a crash could occur, in my opinion, is through extraordinary failure. A major news event could do it. But I do not trade potential news events. I try to trade existing structure, logically projected. No crash is in sight, for me. Although my "second most likely" projection does hint at a serious correction. It does not, however, start from here. Give it a week. It should scratch and claw its way up to around 1390.00 Spoos by Friday. Then that structure hits the "down" button for a basement somewhere around 1300 Cash SPX. But even that projection then turns around and heads for the heights. Nope. I just don't see the crash. Not from here. If anyone wants to watch my oxymoronic "safe" trading approach for a week, you can get a free pass at ... sellnow.net ... Trade safe. |
