G* effect:
If they get to 1 million subs in a year like they say they will, Q should be making 1/3 of those phones at ~$1,000 a pop, or $333 million in revenues. Add on a 5% royalty on the 667,000 other phones and we can add $33 million to royalties. Tack on the CDMA ASIC revenue for the chip to handle the G* version of CDMA, and you get another $20-30 million. Now, if G* is REALLY huge, Q gets a piece of the management fee. That is, when revenues get above $500 million for G*, Loral and QCOM get 2.5% as a management fee, and it ups to 3% after another $500 million. Q gets 20% of this management fee.
As for the FCC decision, I expect nothing. The government sucks, the FCC sucks even more. Are they going to give Q equivalent spectrum? What IS equivalent spectrum? Answering that question is probably worth another 3 years. DO they pay for lost opportunity? Hell no, it's the government. Now, if there is some other spectrum Q wants, such as for Omnitracs, Lojacktracs, Racetracks, or whatever, then maybe it could be done. I expect nothing and will be pleasantly surprised if it goes otherwise. |
