Rod,
It's good to hear from you.
I noticed the IEA had nothing at all to say about the 'missing barrels', the existence of which they invented to explain discrepancies in their bookkeeping. After all, this number of missing barrels had been cranked up into the hundreds of millions barrels. What became of the missing barrels?
The article mentioned fraud but if there has been a fraud perpetuated over the last year or two, it has been the so-called 'oil glut' the article discusses. Unfortunately for people like yourself, the perception of an oil glut, false or not, is very real and causes real hurt.
Over the weekend, Barrons quoted a Mr. Petrie, a gentleman based here in Denver. He was one of the few analysts willing to predict $20 oil back in Dec and Jan when others, such as the Economist, were looking at the possibility of $5 oil. Primarily he thought OPEC would make the cuts in production stick. He thinks OPEC wants the price of oil at $18 to $21. Any lower than that, they hurt financially. Any higher, it encourages the development of non-OPEC production and in the long term, lays the groundwork for another boom bust cycle.
Nothing wrong with $18 to $21 oil. Everyone can make money there and if maintained over a long period of time, some might even take to the notion of making some long term plans.
But let's not get carried away.
Regards,
Jack |
