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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 652.53

-1.5%

Nov 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (21127)	7/26/1999 4:07:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (4) of 99985

i'll have to look at today's collective evidence to firmly commit to an opinion, but this is quite possible - anyhow, i'm selling any rally attempt as long as the dollar stays weak and as long as no evidence is forthcoming that would argue for a renewed psychological shift in the bond and stock markets. i still think we have merely a correction - but the market could easily fall prey to a more pronounced bout of selling if any bad news from the international political and/or economic landscape hits. based purely on technicals the market is certainly oversold in the short term. but as i have pointed out many times, it is very hard to adopt a bullish outlook for the medium term in view of a)the market's weak internals and b) the degree of euphoria that has reigned throughout this year. not even the bears seem to be able to mount a lot of conviction, so the market may well surprise everyone by declining a bit more than generally expected. regards, hb

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