Hi Confluence,
Getting closer to my valuation today based on 1000 tonne per day. I adjusted marketing costs to 10% which seems the norm when you go with DeBeers. New valuation is $2.31 as follows,....
1000tpd x ($300 cdn$/tonne revenue-60 cdn$/tonne costs-$30 cdn$/tonne marketing costs) x 350 days x 68% - $20,000,000/year (office overhead, principle payment&interest, misc business and mining costs)= $29,980,000
How many shares will we have when we start making something. My guess with the work yet to do around 65 million. Therefore earnings per share per year of $.46 before tax.
Market multiple is debatable, but if we assign SUF's at about 5 times we get $2.31. Using these numbers Winspear is still overvalued. Really only a production increase could improve this, so we can assume the market has that built in already. If production cannot be increased, expect a further downdraft.
Dug this up from the 1998 Annual Report. Lots of options out there.
9. Stock Options and Warrants
As at December 31, 1998, the Company had outstanding stock
options, enabling the holders to acquire further shares as follows:
Number Exercise
of Shares Price Expiry Date
50,000 $ 2.20 November 23, 1999
60,000 1.22 August 13, 2000
20,000 1.16 August 18, 2000
25,000 1.17 August 31, 2000
39,600 1.10 September 30, 2000
40,000 1.38 October 19, 2000
10,000 2.20 November 23, 2000
1,995,000 1.62 February 3, 2002
108,000 1.15 January 15, 2003
45,000 1.09 September 11, 2003
100,000 1.38 October 19, 2003
457,000 2.20 November 23, 2003
As at December 31, 1998, the Company had outstanding share
purchase warrants, enabling the holders to acquire further shares
as follows:
Number Exercise
of Shares Price Expiry Date
1,750,000 2.25 December 22, 1999
3,250,000 2.50 December 22, 1999
465,750 2.20 December 22, 1999
567,605 3.50 March 10, 2000
then at 4.03 March 10, 2001
then at 4.55 March 10, 2002
412,500 3.75 March 10, 2000
then at 4.32 March 10, 2001
then at 4.88 March 10, 2002
Anything catch anyones eye? Perhaps 65 million shares outstanding by start of production is a little low eh? |
