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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR)
QLGC 16.070.0%Aug 24 5:00 PM EST

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To: Kerry Lee who wrote (23487)7/26/1999 4:34:00 PM
From: Alan Bershtein  Read Replies (2) of 29386
 
It is interesting to note that PJC forecasts FC switch market dollar revenues to grow from $33.8 million in 1998 to $122 million in 1999 to $430 million in 2000 to $1.24 Billion in 2001 and $2.26 Billion in 2002, a CAGR of 112%. They list IDC and USBancorp Piper Jaffrey as the sources.

It is interesting to note that PJ projects ANCR's 1999 revenue to be 46 mil or 37.7% of the 122 mil FC switch market projection. The 37.7% is towards the low range of KH's 1/3 to 1/2 estimate of ANCR's share of the market.

Going one step further, if we apply 37.7% market share to PJ's switch market estimates, we get ANCR revenue of 162 mil in 2000 and 467 mil in 2001.

I would welcome a critique of this extrapolation as I try attempt to get a handle on ANCR revenues for 1999, 2000 and beyond.

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