Morgan,
Thanks for your reply. We're getting off the subject of NITE and onto the "subject of the subject of NITE." Nevertheless, my response follows:
<<If you are *right* about the stock going down, and you voice that, is it "emotionalism"? >>
Well, if you are *wrong* about a stock going down, and you voice that, does that prove "emotionalism?" The answer is "No"...
Good question on semantics. Whether or not someone is "right" or "wrong" in the end proves nothing about emotionalism. Emotionalism constitutes making statements that you cannot support with facts. You happen to think you can support your comments by claiming that you'll "stand by your opinion." For example:
"A technical bounce from an oversold position, will only be fodder for more shorting (sucker rally)." - Oh really?
Your supporting comment: <<Oh really. Because I will act on it - as I have every time (f.ex. when it popped to 56, and when it goes up in the morning, I short) - I will continue to do so UNTIL THE MARKET CONDITIONS CHANGE. I don't see them change anytime soon.>>
Morgan, the operative word in your initial claim is "will". "A technical bounce from an oversold position WILL only be fodder for more shorting."
How many times have you seen a technical bounce from an oversold position that actually continues upward without substantial covering reprieve for shorts?? Look at any chart and you'll see numerous examples. Enough said.
Comments such as the following do constitute "emotionalism" by any textbook definition:
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"I'm afraid the goose is cooked for NITE"
"NITE is a goner for a long time. "
"The only way for NITE to climb and hold gains, is if it has some dramatic PR come out (I don't see it)" - How do you know?
"Otherwise we have to wait out the long fall and winter"
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As I said earlier, it is your right to post in such a manner. I chose to re-post the whole littany of you "sky-is-falling" musings because those are just the type of comments one often hears right before a turnaround.
You yourself said you like to listen to sentiment. Perhaps, you may, in fact, be your own best contrarian indicator.
However, I wanted to point out the hypocracy in your posting all these "sky-is-falling" or "sky-has-fallen-and-the-sun-will-never-rise-again" statements just days after you lectured Mr. Norris about how he might have cajoled less agile investors into buying at the wrong time. In your case, some of your followers here may be convinced to sell at the wrong time, especially if NITE blasts off tomorrow for some reason.
So much for your stint as a socially responsible poster (I'm not claiming to be so, BTW).
But although you may have a fine trading record (I do also, BTW), neither you nor I cannot predict the future. I took exception to your "dismal post of the day" simply because you made forward-looking statements that were inappropriately overconfident (how do you know about all your "sky-is-falling" claims?) - the answer is you don't.
You and I well know that the market loves to eat overconfidence alive. Whenever I see a trader who displays overconfidence, I see one with a few more lessons to be learned.
Finally, I normally am very meticulous about making sure my posts are decent and factual. You are correct that I didn't acknowledge that you attempted to answer my question "How are you so sure there is a lot of shorting going on?" I just wasn't satisfied with your answer and even you said it is speculation. |
