Bill, if you go back over my posts on this board, you'll see that I've spoken about how to read Thompsons many, many times in great detail.
As for today, just a few quick notes: a lot of institutional trading today (pie chart) - that's depressing, considering that the price fell so badly (almost 10% - this is frankly very, very, bad - none of the major brokers did as badly, nor even the volatile nets like AOL, AMZN, YHOO, CMGI etc. did as badly), on volume. As far as volume, what is bad is that not only has NITE been falling on increasing volume, but the low points intraday are on heavier volume - this is very bad indeed - it means that the bounce backs (where some buyers may conceivably be coming in) are weak (few buyers), while the selling is going on with conviction - this is not some MM artifact, this is grim market reality of supply/demand. There is very little demand for NITE shares (understatement, LOL).
The superbuy signals only signify an expression of interest (through institutional limit orders). I suspect that most of them were not executed (though some may) - I wrote in earlier posts on how to tell (more or less, it is all speculation to some degree), if the orders are executed or not. Further, it does not mean much longer term - these can often be trading orders for the day, not any indication of "accumulation" or "selling". Also, you can't even tell if these are discrete orders, or simply one or two orders that are shadowing the price as it moves.
Frankly, I don't see anything in today's Thompsons chart that would cause me to become excited.
NITE is very oversold, so a technical bounce can happen at any moment, but now the technical damage to the stock is so extensive, that I frankly see this stock as dead for the time being (sucker rallies can last even a few days, but will be sold off - or shorted - with a vengeance... there are too many people just waiting to get out).
Morgan |
