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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 668.73+1.5%Nov 24 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (21151)7/26/1999 10:19:00 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE.

The market should be heading into a consolidation that should be starting now. This potential consolidation pattern should mark the halfway point of the move that began off the high of July 19. A 38.2% retracement can take the market back to the 1382 area on the September S&P's and a 50% retracement would carry the market back to 1392 level. We think the bigger trend is now down to probably September to October. The safer play would be to sell the rallies. We did have another high downtick reading today, hitting a high of minus 1129. Last Thursday a minus 1401-downtick reading was recorded. These types of downtick readings suggest the market is near a support area for short term and a bounce is likely. The ARMS Index stayed near .65 intraday and closed at .76 today. These readings suggest a lot of buying power is being used up and does not bode well for any worth while rally developing here. In candlestick charting on September &P's a bullish "Inverted Hammer" was drawn that did coincide with a bullish downtick reading of a minus 1129. This condition suggests the market is about to begin a short-term bounce. We will look to go short at the top of the bounce. The McClellan Oscillator closed today at minus 151. The market always makes a lower low after the McClellan Oscillator makes it's lowest low. New lower lows are expected after this bounce is completed.
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