Spirit, you asked for two cents. . .
First, you say. . . if you're now suggesting taking losses I don't suggest anything. I state my intentions or my actions. .
As for Greenspan, his "irrational exhuberance" was about this time last year.
As for MSFT. . . I bought it at 81, only to watch it flounder in the mid seventies in April/May. . .Lucent has split since the last big selloff. . .so 62 is like 124 pre-split. . . I think it was down in the 80's, meaning the same bottom would put it in the 40's. And AOL has bigger problems, IMO, than just flowing with the sell-off. . . I think it could see 80s. . . MRK is probably fine where it is.
Why do I persist that the market will keep selling off and stay sold off? Because you are going to Europe. . . .and when you get there, you will see all our brokers. . . all those market makers we fought with all year long. . . and all those guys that put in the 7 digit buys and sells that lifted eyebrows all year long.
The big players and many of the smaller ones are on vacation. . . therefore the money on the sidelines is going to stay on the sidelines. Gains are relative to where you bought in. . . there is no correct move. . .so the market will be here when you and everyone else gets back.
We simply take up from where we left off. No magic. Yes, there could be some spikes before then, but I maintain that they will be extremely narrow and short-lived.
As for Clinton saving the day. . . don't bet on it. And as for tech-leaders surviving the sell-off. . . if I thought that would happen, I would have kept them.
I can only trade out of conviction in what I believe to be true. Otherwise I am wishy washy. . . and the wishy washy trader merely treads water if he is good. . . and loses big, if not.
You make an excellent point that timing the market is tricky and we must be clever. . . that is why I have stated that I am taking positions in phases, based on market weakness. . . .August positions, September positions and October positions. . . depending on when things get sold off the hardest. . . and in proportion to that.
Also, I have made it clear that I am looking for the great stocks that get big haircuts. . . .not the mediocre ones. . . a chunk of bad news can be the best thing for a portfolio. . . especially in the current market where knee jerk reactions are the norm.
For your sake, I hope that everything pops back, so you can sell out.
Best wishes to you and I hope you and yours have a wonderful time in Europe.
Rande Is |
