www.au.af.mil/au/2025/monographs/O-A/o-a-3.htm#Alternate Futures
American Worldview. - This driver is the US perspective of the world which determines the nation's willingness and capability to interact with the
rest of the world. American Worldview captures the dominant US focus regarding international affairs. The US can be primarily internally focused,
perhaps even isolationist, or the US can be actively engaged in activities around the world. The poles of American Worldview are domestic and
global.
D TeK. - This driver is the differential in the growth rate, proliferation, leverage, and vitality of scientific knowledge and technical applications and
their consequences. D TeK describes the rate of change in both the proliferation and advancement of technology. The two poles of D TeK are
Constrained and Exponential. Constrained D TeK implies that technology is advancing at an evolutionary rate and that its availability is limited to a
relatively small number of actors. Exponential D TeK occurs when there are revolutionary breakthroughs in technology that are rapidly proliferated
throughout the world.
World Power Grid. - This driver describes the generation, transmission, distribution, and control of power throughout the world. This power is a
combination of economic, political, and information sources of power as well as military strength. The two poles of this driver are Concentrated
and Dispersed. A concentrated world power grid exists when few actors have the means or will to influence others. When a myriad of groups or
individuals can change the future, the world power grid is dispersed.
Six alternate futures were chosen from this planning space to provide a diverse set of future conditions against which to evaluate the proposed air
and space systems. Four futures are extremes: Gulliver's Travails, Zaibatsu, Digital Cacophony, and King Khan. The world of Halfs and
Half-Naughts was chosen for its centrality. Finally, the 2015 Crossroads future provides a conservative bridge between today and 2025.
In Gulliver's Travails, the US is overwhelmed with worldwide commitments, counterterrorism and counterproliferation efforts, humanitarian
operations, and peacekeeping operations. In Zaibatsu, multinational corporations dominate international affairs, loosely cooperating to create a
relatively benign world. Digital Cacophony is the most technologically advanced world resulting in great power and independence for the
individual, but also creating a world of social isolation, fear, and anxiety. King Khan is a world where US dominance has waned due to domestic
problems, an economic depression, and overshadowing by a rising Asian colossus. The world of Halfs and Half-Naughts is dominated by
conflict between the "haves" and "have-nots" and by dynamically changing social structures and security conditions. 2015 Crossroads uses
programmed forces from 1996-2001 to fight a major conflict; it presents the US with a strategic challenge in 2015 that could lead to any of other
alternate futures by 2025. |
