They have a history of profit warnings?
Since when?
I suppose if you go farther back, but in the last 7-8 quarters, they have only warned once...and they should have warned twice (but that's another story). I don't think that is a "history" of warning.
I've held other prominent stocks that have warned far more frequently. If anything, what I have found is that ORCL has, for the vast majority of the last 8 quarters, EXCEEDED estimates. Usually by about 4 cents - and even in quarters where revenue was shy of expectations.
What I think alot of investors miss is that this is actually a sign of strength in a company like ORCL. If revs are short one quarter, but they still make or exceed estimates - it shows good cost control. Cost controls roll over quarter to quarter, usually, making it likely that they can hit estimates again if revs are short, and even exceed nicely if they hit rev estimates (as we saw last quarter).
True, this may be a slow quarter for ORCL, but I don't like to take a short view of fundamentally sound companies. Daytraders can have a good time, but I know that the vast majority of daytraders lose $$. I'm still way ahead, even IF ORCL slides a bit.
When a company like ORCL has insider selling, it says to me that the insiders have seen opportunities that may be better/that they need some cash/that they are diversifying to avoid overreliance on one stock. |
