CLINTON'S TWO-TRACK ENDGAME
By DICK MORRIS
AS the end of his term approaches, which does
Bill Clinton do? Does he amass partisan issues to
help his wife go to the Senate, his protege become
president and his party retake Congress? Or does
he work with the GOP congressional leadership
to fashion compromises to bolster his legacy by
saving Social Security, strengthening Medicare,
paying off the national debt, cutting taxes and
granting coverage to the elderly for prescription
medicines?
Since he's Bill Clinton, he's decided to do both.
His wife, his best friend and his party are on the
line in the 2000 elections; Clinton is not about to
leave them short of either money or issues. So
he's raising funds vigorously and staking out
partisan food fights that will work to the
advantage of the Democrats.
Clinton has signaled his intention to reject
compromises on gun control, the patient's bill of
rights and his program for 100,000 extra teachers.
On these issues, he won't take yes for an answer.
No matter how far to the left the Republicans go,
he'll see them and raise them, upping the ante until
he has an issue to use in the 2000 elections. He's
virtually begging for the chance to veto
GOP-sponsored legislation in these areas.
But with his legacy on the line, Clinton is equally
determined to redeem his presidency after
impeachment with a strong, record-setting finish.
On the mainstream budget issues of Social
Security, Medicare, taxes and the national debt,
he has clearly told congressional Democrats to
back off and let him cut a deal with House
Speaker Dennis Hastert and Senate Majority
Leader Trent Lott.
He proposes no less of an achievement than to
solve America's major budget and financial
problems. As we enter the 21st century, he wants
to leave the United States virtually debt-free, with
lower taxes and a stable and sound Social
Security/Medicare system that includes some
coverage for prescription drugs.
Treading carefully, Clinton always leaves plenty of
room for compromise on these core issues and
never draws lines in the sand that may lead to
confronta-tion and upset his plans for a grand deal
at the end.
The Republicans don't know quite how to react.
They trust Clinton about as much as Kenneth
Starr does. Like Charlie Brown and Lucy, they
well remember the many times the president has
pulled the football away just as they prepared to
kick it. They don't want to spend wind up on their
butts yet again in 1999. (Some Republicans even
ask, in the same breath, how the United States
can deal with Milosevic and how the GOP can
deal with Clinton now that one has been declared
a war criminal and the other has been impeached.)
But the Republicans know that they can't stop a
president intent on a fair and reasonable
compromise without looking very bad in the
process. So they are determined to give Clinton
his way on Social Security and debt repayment
while challenging him on taxes and Medicare.
They have staked out party positions and rounded
up the votes needed to pass them in the House.
So how will Clinton pull off a deal?
He has a secret weapon in his holster: the
economy, stupid! He knows that tax cuts that
appear unaffordable and prescription-drug
coverage that seems too costly now may well
look perfectly reasonable in the fall and winter as
the American economy continues to grow at an
astounding rate with no inflation.
He learned in 1995-1997 that revenue estimates
tend to untie political knots and make compromise
inevitable. The conflicting demands of the two
parties in 1995 - so major that they led to two
government shutdowns - were over-taken by
growing revenue estimates so that, by 1997, both
sides could get what they wanted. The purpose of
the opening moves of the negotiation was to fix
each side's feet firmly in cement so that they
couldn't ratchet up their demands when the
economy improved creating a new deadlock at a
higher figure.
Clinton has really only had two years to be
president. In 1993, he wielded the full powers of
the office. But 1994 was consumed by his failed
health-care initiative at the start and electoral
defeat at the end. Then 1995 and 1996 were
devoted to recovering from the '94 defeat, getting
re-elected and repositioning himself. In 1997, he
got to have his second year as president. But
Monica took care of 1998, while impeachment
plus Kosovo ate up the first half of 1999.
Now Clinton is anxious to have his third year in
office - the second half of '99 and the first few
months of '00 (before the campaign gets too hot
to pass anything).
How will he keep the Democrats down on the
farm while he is making the GOP look good by
passing all these laws? He's taken care to set
aside attractive issues to take care of his party. In
the aftermath of the Littleton shootings, the
Democrats are poised to use the issue of crime
and violence with all the success - and some of
the demagoguery - that Nixon milked it for in
1970.
The demand for HMO reform has backed the
GOP into a corner and given the Democrats a
field day. Likewise, Republican intransigence is
handing the Democrats the campaign-finance issue
in 2000, an incredible development when you
consider what Clinton did to raise money in 1996.
With the white-hot passions these issues should
awaken, the Democrats will have to grimace and
bear it as the president works with the
Republicans to solve the major problems that
confront the nation.
My bet is that Clinton gets to have his cake and
eat it too. He'll pass the most far reaching
legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964,
while still fashioning partisan issues so his party
can have a good shot in the elections.
It will be one hell of an endgame. |
