DS: Yes. At the risk of seeming elitist about this group, I think we here (as a group) have made a greater than usual effort to understand each of the companies on our lists than have most other investors. I very much doubt, for example, that your local friendly stock broker can actually phrase the difference between these two as well as you.
What's s/he going to tell the customer? I'll bet a lot of investors, including institutions, hold both, just as you do.
By de-link, I'm asking if there's anything in the future for these companies that will cause their stocks to behave differently, ie, out of lock-step. We can't base our purchase decisions based on charts can we? If we did, it wouldn't matter which we bought. But over time, it may very well matter, and so, shouldn't we be thinking about that?
So, it wasn't an idle question. I know you didn't take it that way of course, but I just want to emphasize that I do wonder if you have any thoughts on what will de-link these two stocks from lock-step charts. Both may continue to do well, one may misstep, or pull away. Two chances out of three the charts will begin to differ. What possibilities ahead are there to cause this? It may be nothing fundamental...it could be some vague investor perception that takes hold to alter this.
As I read back through this, I'm thinking that this must have been what it was like predicting where the Japanese fleet would be before Midway, and whether there was to be a Midway at all. Pure supposition at first, then once that was confirmed, they had to make a "best guess" as to where it would be found. I know, the stakes aren't nearly so high, but perhaps we can learn how to apply this to the other issues as well. Wouldn't that be a kick...especially if we really did!
No Lindy, it's not timing the market...it's looking around corners. |
