Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin

RMBS 95.22

-1.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (25756)	7/27/1999 11:58:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (2) of 93625

Zeev: You seem to be insistent that we will revisit $86 and $74 according to the charts. I am not an expert in anything but I believe that two factors are in play with RMBS: short interest players and Call option exercisers. Both of these factors are accentuating the sudden rise upwards. I believe they are still in play for this month by the increase in reported July short interest and widely known Sep release of Camino should influence CALL option holders to exercise stock options as I believe they have done over last three months. Regarding short interest, we had 5.1 M on Jul 12. Only on three days since SI report have we had trading volume high enough to effect short interest number. On Jul 15, we had 5.1 M shares traded on a up day. If one subtracts the 1.1 M avr. baseline trading volume, 4.0 M is the approximate short interest covering volume or 2 M shares covered (3.1 M SI remaining). On the 19th and 20th of Jul, we had two significantly down days with a total of 5.2 M shares traded for the two days. Subtracted 2.2 M avr baseline trading volume, we have 3.0 M short interest positions established because we know a short can't help himself avoid reestablishing short position on way back down form sudden rise. So the next effect is 3.1 M remaining SI plus 1.5 M additional new SI giving us 4.6 M shares short as of today. This value is in line with recent SI numbers relative to the price of RMBS stock. Also, I am impressed with the fact that with the naked eye one could see the peak near option expiration date with a valley at the mid point between expiration dates. If RMBS christmas is within two months, options expiration dates of AUG and SEP IMHO should be the most pronounced dates for RMBS movement excluding Jun 98 PCEXPO announcement by Intel. The only thing preventing a RMBS breakout beyond 117 is additional weakening of support from Intel or a major market correction. My bet is to roll the dice and keep a large long RMBS position until at least AUG option expiration and through INTEL IDF on AUG 30. jd

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