Enough of this Ted Quinn love-fest. :-) I enjoy Ted's posts as much as the next guy, but I'm not sure he's quite the Nostradamus he's recently been made out to be.
Ted wears the yellow jersey for track record.
Okay, let's look at some of his recent track record (going back to October 1998 since that's what's readily available).
Post #6404, 17 Oct 98, CRUS closing price $6.625
prediction: CRUS in double digits by end of January
result: CRUS closes at $10.5 on 29 Jan
grade: prediction was correct, although barely, as CRUS started February in the single digits and headed down again
Post #6576, 5 Dec 98, CRUS closing price $12.25
prediction: run-up between X-mas and earnings around 24 Jan
result: CRUS goes from $10.625 on 24 Dec to $10.8125 on 22 Jan
grade: prediction incorrect although not horrible, +2% is not what I'd call a run-up in stock price
Post #6752, 21 Jan 99, CRUS closing price $11.75
prediction: down $1.5 on way back to $10
result: CRUS hits $10 by 1 Feb and down to $8 by 17 Feb
grade: correct, although he failed to foresee the drop to $8
Post #6785, 30 Jan 99, CRUS closing price $10.5
prediction: takeover by Lucent
result: whither the takeover?
grade: prediction incorrect (so far), and now it's Sony???
Post #6933, 22 Apr 99, CRUS closing price $7.78125
prediction: bullish on CRUS
result: today's close $7.8125, in between came a high of $10.125 and a low of $6.875
grade: nothing to write home about
As you can see from the evidence, Ted is human like the rest of us. He calls a few right and gets a few wrong, too. Now I don't think Ted ever claimed to be making his predictions for anything but entertainment, so I'm not blaming him--just his sudden mass of loyal worshippers.
Regards,
G.P. |
