M2, permit me to intrude even though we are not on the GUMM thread on the bad side of town, so to speak.
Bo can speak for himself but the comparison to KIDE has nothing to do with the product but the type of stock - and read this part carefully - low float with misperceived low value.
Even though KIDE has several sources of revenue that have actually carried the stock to this point (Pokemon revenues have really begun to trickle in despite the HUGE number of licenses gained in the last quarter), the market did not pay attention to it and actually saw it lose 20% before it shot up and quadrupled and split.
You call GUMM a risky momentum play, but the chart shows a slow buildup of support. The risky momentum part of this is for shorts, who continue to increasingly short it despite a base that shows accumulation at each level.
The shorts who really do not understand what a nicotine contract could do to the bottom line or who spew complete utter crap about Zicam being a scam while it is being purchased by nearly every major grocery and drug chain in the country. Also, at the same time, while a paper with the name of a famous university (now where are Hensley and Davidson from?) is pending at the New England Journal of Medicine. Is there a chance it might not be published by the NEJM? Yes. If that doesn't come to fruition, will all those orders suddenly be cancelled? NO. Will the income still come in? YES.
GUMM has some risks but IMO the shorts are building there own grave by "doubling up" as support bases rise. Any good news, real news, that is, will come to a company with longs who are not itching to sell in the teens - and with a smaller effective float because of the increasing short population.
For longs who have done research about Zicam and nictotine gum with respect to this company, which had 90% of its fourth quarter revenues come from new products introduced within the last 6 months of last year (quote from the 1998 Annual Report just received yesterday), this is NOT a momentum play, it is a long term investment.
That is not to say some of us won't take some profits if there is an obscene short squeeze. Of course, we will - but we are not living for it. Many of us will do better holding the vast majority of this stock very long. I personally believe the numbers that Dan has profferred make sense and may be conservative.
People who got out of KIDE too fast because they did not realize the depth of the product are kicking themselves. Bo was referring to not making THAT mistake with GUMM.
Regards,
Howard |
