Dennis; That was well a written IFY that said 10860 was or
is support, and 11000 is resistance , but he sees a rally that
I don't see, today may have been it.
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I'm working late and changing my basic Head/Tail indicator
around, now looking more at dollars traded, via 3 month
average volume. ( like where is the Action at most often )
unbelievable AOL has the most money swapping hands
with $2.178 Billion a day on a 3 mo average
I would have never thought it..holy mackerel..
MSFT is second $1.077 B , thats right AOL is trading TWICE
the Dollars MSFT is trading..
Keep in mind Volume on the NAZ is to be 1/2 to get apples
to apples with NYSE volume as THe MMs count the NAZ vol
coming and going and NYSE just counts the trade as 1.
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Here are the Top traded STOCKS $ wise on a 3 month Avg volume
to price WATCH THEM as a group they will tell you
which way the money is flowing before the rest of the market
catches the move. ALL $ in Billions per day
1 AOL $2.178 ,2 Msft $1.077 , 3 IBM $ .750 , 4 INTC $.660 5 T $.617
6 LU $.620 , 7 GE $.545 , 8 YHOO $.530 , 9 CSCO $.477, 10 WCOM $.473
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This list will change but I'm now certain that watching the
cash flow on the most heavily traded stocks, & comparing that
momentum with the broad market gives not only the direction
but the MO MO ,
Lets say as a GANG the above are up 3% by noon, the S&P up
2% you know she is going on up But by 2:30 the GANG is
up still only up 3% and the S&P has caught up, well Mo Mo
is falling off BAD, you can get short the index on the spot if
either one starts down even a little. Big money ran out of
steam or the GANG would have held it's relative lead.
Jim
PS
I use to put a lot a faith in how BIG caps rolled the index
particularly weighted indexes, but I'v come to see $ LEADERSHIP
is more important while it changes from time to time..
and the $ leaders have to be redefined, using the 3 mo avg
volume X price will serve good enough to tell you the most
popular stocks traded $Dollar wise
the way they go and the speed they
make will lead the market along.
Major Reversals of $ will also show up in them first.
"the old Follow the money rule " is in this.
And it's the most simple and best indicator I'v found
to date.
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