PS: The dollar index should rise starting today!
I concur. The lower consumer confidence numbers apparently reduced the fear of an interest rate hike. Tough for AG to argue with that. He'd rather have us be afraid, very afraid... <vbg>
As for Japan, I concur. It is a major obstacle for them. If you think consumer confidence will be hurt here by Y2K fears, I'm predicted a graver situation overseas.
Stocks may climb here in the US, but if people taper off their spending in the latter part of the year, adjust their portfolios out of sheer psychological fear, or we really have economic problems from Y2K, the contraction would likely hit stocks and send T-Bills higher as a safe harbor.
I believe stock market turmoil overseas will definitely bleed over to our shores. The only question is how much will this fall shave off the Indices?? In any event, T-bills are a no brainer in my mind at these interest rates (artificially high, imo, due to excessive competition from corporate bond offerings and AG's jaw-boning, both Y2K induced.. :0).
I'm hoping that overseas disruptions, financial or physical, won't nearly be as bad as many fear (including myself), but the inevitable business and credit contraction will deal with any inflation fears here.
Your thoughts?
Regards,
Ron |
