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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: John Pitera who wrote (53569)7/28/1999 5:07:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
John, i am also expecting a Yuan devaluation anytime. but the best argument for a bond market sell-off would probably be a further rise in the Yen. the yen carry trade must be under water quite a bit by now considering the bear market in treasuries since october and the resurgent yen. probably certain yen/dollar levels would trigger an avalanche of panic buying in the yen and concomitant panic selling of t-bonds. we had a taste of the carry trade panic potential last year when the yen suddenly jumped like crazy in a single day. it is interesting that neither BOJ interventions nor a stream of negative economic news out of Japan seem able to curtail the Yen's rise. a sign that the funds engaged in the carry trade are getting edgy and perhaps also a sign that Japanese investors are starting to repatriate some of their assets. the stock market seems very complacent with regards to the weakening dollar, a grave underestimation of it's disruptive potential imo.

regards,

hb
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